The latest Prairie wind trajectory cereal rust risk report is available for download now at the following link: June 14-20, 2023 report.
As of the period of June 14-20, 2023 the overall Prairie cereal rust risk assessment and need for in-crop scouting is as follows:
Pacific Northwest – There
was moderate number of reverse wind trajectories that passed over the PNW
region and into the Prairies and an increase versus June 7-13. Rainfall has recently occurred especially in
central Alberta to the south Peace River region, southern Alberta. However, given limited stripe rust
development in the PNW, as of June 20, 2023 the risk of stripe rust
appearance from the PNW is low and scouting for this disease in the Prairie
region is generally not urgent.
Texas-Oklahoma corridor – There
was only one trajectory that pass over this source area and ended up in the
Prairies and given that crops in the Texas to Oklahoma region are approaching
maturity or are being harvested, this source region no longer represents a
source of rust inoculum for the Prairie region and the PCDMN cereal risk report
will focus on the PNW and Kansas/Nebraska regions. As of June 20, 2023 the risk of stem,
leaf, stripe, and crown rust appearance from the Texas-Oklahoma corridor is
limited and scouting for these diseases in the Prairie region is not urgent.
Kansas-Nebraska corridor – Given
a lower number of wind trajectories from this region, increasing rust
incidence, especially stripe rust, albeit at low levels in this corridor, as
of June 20, 2023 the risk of stem, leaf, stripe, and crown rust appearance from
the Kansas-Nebraska corridor is generally low and scouting for these diseases
in the Prairies is not urgent.
However, recent reports of increasing levels of stripe rust in NW and
west central Kansas, and the continued observation of stem rust in Kansas
commercial fields may represent an emerging concern. These observations are a
concern, however, the number of trajectories was reduced for June 14-20, while
rainfall from June 12-18 was limited. Farmers and consultants in the
central-eastern Prairies should consider keeping an eye out for stripe
and stem rust development, especially in fields planted to susceptible
varieties.
